Gilbert Strang, Calculus, 3rd edition (Wellesley-Cambridge Press; MIT OpenCourseWare RES.18-001) §8.4 Probability and Calculus, #19 · Probability · Continuous distributions

Supernovas are expected about every 100 years

Supernovas are expected about every 100 years. What is the probability that you will be alive for the next one? Use a Poisson model with $λ = .01$ and estimate your lifetime. (Supernovas actually occurred in 1054 (Crab Nebula), 1572, 1604, and 1987. But the future distribution doesn't depend on the date of the last one.)

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Gilbert Strang, Calculus, 3rd edition (Wellesley-Cambridge Press; MIT OpenCourseWare RES.18-001) · §8.4 Probability and Calculus, #19

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